FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system for
exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of epidemics.
The system is currently undergoing maintenance. Please visit again later.
Welcome to the FRED Measles Epidemic Simulator
FRED (A Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) is a freely available open-source agent-based modeling system for
exploring the spatial and temporal patterns of epidemics.
This site shows possible outbreaks following the introduction of a single measles case in selected US cities. The model shows the importance of a high
vaccination rate in providing protection for the entire community.
Funding
This work is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences under MIDAS grant
U54GM088491 and by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation
of the software.
FRED simulates the spread of infectious disease through an artificial population that accurately
represents the demographic and geographic distributions in a given city or state, including realistic household, school, and workplace social
contact patterns. Each simulation begins with the infection of a few people in the area, and as people interact in households,
neighborhoods, schools, and workplaces, the disease may be transmitted from an infectious person to a susceptible person. Simulations are
currently available for every state and county in the United States, and for selected international locations.
FRED was developed by the University of Pittsburgh Public Health Dynamics Laboratory in collaboration
with the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center and the school of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University.
The Measles Simulations
The simulation begins with a single school-age child contracting measles, and shows the possible spread of the disease
in the seven months after the initial case. Red dots show the location of infectious
people, and blue dots show the location of recovered people. If more than a few cases appear, herd immunity has
been lost, and the disease spreads easily. If only a few cases appear, herd immunity is still in place.
Two scenarios are shown. In one scenario, it is assumed that 80% of children 6 months old to 15 years old are immunized
against measles. In the other scenario, it is assumed that 95% of children 6 months old to 15 years old are immunized
against measles. In most cases, the difference between the 80% coverage scenario and the 95% coverage scenario is quite dramatic. This shows the
importance of a high vaccination rate in providing protection for the entire community.
Funding
This work is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences under MIDAS grant
U54GM088491 and by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis,
decision to publish, or preparation of the software.
Simulation of the spread of a
measles outbreak showing the effects of population vaccination coverage:
Instructions:
1. Select your State
2. Select your City
3. Click to see the results of a measles outbreak
with vaccination coverage of 80% (below herd immunity threshold).
4. Press Done
5. Click to see the results of a measles outbeak
with vaccination coverage of 95% (providing herd immunity).
