OUD Simulation Model Development

Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiologic Dynamics (FRED)

OUD simulation model is built in FRED, an agent-based simulation modeling tool that uses a synthetic population to represent the entire US population. Significant agent-specific and location-specific characteristics can be incorporated into the model.

National Clinical Stakeholder Committee

Investigators constructed the simulation model under the advice of a national committee of addiction experts and opioid use disorder clinicians who met several times a year with the investigators to assure the model represented the most current knowledge regarding OUD

Simulation Model Description

Simulation model of OUD represents the disease as a series of clinical states through which individuals may pass through. The model described on these pages determines the individual trajectories of the entire population in the model

Transition Probabilities

OUD model is clinically complex, and it requires a large number of estimates of the probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, for example the risk of a non-user becoming a person with OUD, or the risk of a person with OUD developing an overdose. Given the complexity of the model, there are nearly 100 parameters that must be estimated from the literature and finalized by calibration.

Model Calibration

The process of calibrating a complex simulation model has required advances in methodologies for searching over a large number of possible parameters and finding the set that best produces the outcomes observed in fatal opioid-related overdoses over time.

Model Validation